Implemented by the Institute for Regional Studies, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, this project is supported by the EEA Grants, within the frame of ‘Adaptation to climate change’ programme. The aim is to forecast the long-term socio-economic development path of Hungary until 2050, and to foster the adaptation to climate change. The results will be integrated into the National Adaptation Geo-Information System (NAGIS). Apart from the literature review, methodological development and model-building, NAGIS will be extended by new data describing the socio-economic characteristics of Hungary in the future. The project investigates and quantifies demographical, economic and land-use change on various geographical and temporal scales, taking into account the interdependence of socio-economic spatial processes and climate change. In addition to the quantifiable results, recommendations will be phrased about the usability of our data in NAGIS, thereby supporting the further development of climate change related public policies.
About the project
The project – apart from the project management (WP1) and dissemination activities (WP4) – is divided into two work packages. One (WP2) investigates international and Hungarian results of climate change modeling, with the focus on how they take into account socio-economic characteristics in the models. This work package also aims to synthesize how socio-economic processes were included in spatial models after 1945 in Hungary and in Europe – with special focus on the inclusion of climate-change related aspects. The other thematic work package (WP3) will model socio-economic processes in Hungary until 2050, on the regional and micro-regional scale, and on a 10×10 km raster. Three areas are considered: some key stock indicators of demographic processes, land-use change and economic development. Discussion of possible methodologies of modelling, as well as data collection, model building and running are also part of the work. The results will be analysed and further methodological feed-back will be given on modelling. In the end, the results will be integrated into NAGIS.
The Adaptation to climate change programme and the project
As one of the twelve programme areas supported by the EEA and Norway Grants between 2009 and 2014 in Hungary, this programme aims to promote a clear understanding of climate change impacts and vulnerability in Hungary; as well as to encourage actions in order to improve climate resilience at local level; to raise awareness of climate change impacts; and to share successful examples of projects that contribute to the reduction of climate change impacts.
One of the three pillars of the programme (C1) is to develop the National Adaptation Geo-Information System (NAGIS) that will facilitate policy making, strategy building and decision making to serve adaptation to climate change, and to support adaptation measures in Hungary. Apart from developing the system itself (C11), the extension of the system to other sectors (C12 – such as this project) and the preparation of new climate scenarios (C13) are also part of the programme.
The EEA Grants
Through the EEA Grants and Norway Grants, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway contribute to reducing social and economic disparities and to strengthening bilateral relations with the beneficiary countries in Europe. The three countries cooperate closely with the EU through the Agreement on the European Economic Area (EEA).
For the period 2009-14, the EEA Grants and Norway Grants amount to €1.79 billion. Norway contributes around 97% of the total funding. Grants are available for NGOs, research and academic institutions, and the public and private sectors in the 12 newest EU member states, Greece, Portugal and Spain. There is broad cooperation with donor state entities, and activities may be implemented until 2016.
Key areas of support are environmental protection and climate change, research and scholarships, civil society, health and children, gender equality, justice and cultural heritage.
The project is funded by the EEA Grants, within the frame of ‘Adaptation to climate change’ programme.
Duration of the project: 5th May 2015 – 31st December 2015.
Total budget of the project: 175 thousand Euros.
The project, implemented between May and December 2015 aimed to produce data for NAGIS about the society and economy until 2050. Using these data, adaptation to climate change might be planned more efficiently on several spatial scales (at the national, county, municipal levels) than it was done in the past.
In the course of the project 11 models with 238 datasets were produced, altogether more than 100,000 records in the NAGIS database on different geographical scales. Apart from the project reports about the literature review, demographic, land use and economic models were built, and a survey was undertaken on the population’s attitudes towards climate change. Furthermore, the project consisted of important methodological developments about how climate change might be integrated into socio-economic projections.
Dissemination activities reached a broad range of people in academia and public-policy making: we organised a kick-off and a closing event, sent out 6 newsletters in Hungarian, held 27 conference presentations at Hungarian and international scientific meetings, and summarised the main results in a separate book in Hungarian.
For the brief summary of the project results in English, download our brochure here.
Scientific publications (with links to full-texts, many of which are in English) are listed here.
See the programme and summary of the kick-off meeting, as well as the closing event (with downloadable bilingual PowerPoint presentations) here and here; EEA REC website reported on the events here and here.
Mr. Márton Czirfusz
Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Postal address: Budaörsi út 45., 1112 Budapest, Hungary